Listen to this segment that I worked on here.
If you could talk to some folks who attended the 1964 World’s Fair, they might be a little disgruntled. After all, they were promised, and vacations to Mars in the near future. Alas, we have none of those things, and yet we still expect transformative technologies like self-driving cars to be part of our lives soon. This week, we talk with robotics pioneer about the art of predicting when new technology will go mainstream.
- When it comes to anticipating tech, we should all just take it down a notch. A lot of people are making decisions based on when they think certain technologies are coming. But in actuality, advances generally take a lot longer than we think. So take predictions with a grain of salt.
- What’s slowing down that revolutionary new technology we may have heard about? Often, the science simply hasn’t been proven yet. Brooks estimates that, for robotics, the average wait time between lab demo and everyday implementation is about 30 years.
- Brooks says today’s innovators have a bit of a head start over their predecessors. Elon Musk’s self-driving car is impressive, but he didn’t have to invent the concept of the car, or the infrastructure to support it (Henry Ford, on the other hand, had to advocate for roads that could actually support cars, rather than carriages).